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TrendForce reports that the NAND Flash industry revenue grew by just 4.8% QoQ in 3Q24, as strong enterprise SSD demand drove significant price increases, but consumer storage demand remained weak. The NAND Flash market is expected to decline by 5-10% QoQ in Q4, shifting towards oversupply. Major suppliers like Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, and Micron are adjusting capacity plans and product strategies to address weakening demand and pricing pressure.
TrendForce reports that the DRAM industry revenue grew by 13.6% QoQ in 3Q24, driven by server DRAM and HBM sales. However, Taiwan-based suppliers lagged behind due to their focus on consumer DRAM. Despite continued contract price increases in Q3, weak demand and high inventory levels are expected to lead to a 3-8% price decline in Q4, with overall ASP dropping by 0-5%. Looking ahead to 2025, TrendForce has lowered its DRAM price forecast, projecting price declines in the first half of the year and a pessimistic outlook for the second half.
TrendForce indicates that the power outage at Vanguard's Taoyuan fab on November 11th is expected to affect less than 5% of its Q4 output. Despite lasting only 24 minutes, the outage may result in wafer scrap and potential losses of US$2-6 million. Due to current low capacity utilization, Vanguard can utilize spare capacity to handle urgent orders for products with shorter production cycles, such as MOSFETs, but some PMIC products may experience shipment delays.
Content:
1. Global AI Server Market Forecast
2. Introduction of Transceiver
3. Transformation from Pluggable Transceiver Optics to CPO
4. Dynamics of the CPO Development
5. Key Takeaways
TrendForce has revised its 2025 DRAM price forecast downward, projecting price declines in the first half of next year, with DDR4 and LPDDR4X experiencing steeper drops. Key factors contributing to this revision include: a weakening NAND Flash market leading to capacity shift towards DRAM; potential underutilization of HBM capacity by some DRAM suppliers, resulting in TSV capacity shifting back to conventional DRAM; China's DRAM capacity expansion; and sluggish consumer electronics demand. TrendForce believes that without DRAM capacity reduction, inventory digestion will be slow, and the price outlook for the second half of 2025 remains pessimistic.
TrendForce indicates that SK hynix has launched the industry's first HBM3e 16hi product, boosting maximum bit capacity to 384GB. This move aims to address the demand for higher-capacity HBM. Compared to HBM4, HBM3e 16hi offers lower I/O and smaller die size, facilitating easier mass production. Leveraging its MR-MUF process advantage, SK hynix's early release of the 16hi product strengthens its leading position in the HBM market and allows it to accumulate valuable experience in 16hi mass production, accelerating the development of HBM4 16hi.
TrendForce indicates that the US is reportedly tightening scrutiny on Chinese customers' use of advanced AI chip manufacturing technologies, potentially impacting TSMC's ≤7nm advanced node sales performance. TSMC's 7nm and below nodes primarily serve customers from the US, Europe, and Taiwan, so the short-term impact on capacity utilization is limited. However, Chinese customers account for 5-10% of total revenue, and in the worst-case scenario, the revenue impact is projected to be of the same scale in 2025. Since Chinese customers previously assisted TSMC with advanced node testing and yield improvement, this move may pose challenges to the mass production of TSMC's 2nm and more advanced nodes, with long-term implications warranting attention.
TrendForce indicates that the US is reportedly tightening scrutiny on Chinese customers' use of advanced AI chip manufacturing technologies, potentially impacting TSMC's ≤7nm advanced node sales performance. TSMC's 7nm and below nodes primarily serve customers from the US, Europe, and Taiwan, so the short-term impact on capacity utilization is limited. However, Chinese customers account for 5-10% of total revenue, and in the worst-case scenario, the revenue impact is projected to be of the same scale in 2025. Since Chinese customers previously assisted TSMC with advanced node testing and yield improvement, this move may pose challenges to the mass production of TSMC's 2nm and more advanced nodes, with long-term implications warranting attention.
TrendForce indicates that NVIDIA will adopt the SO-CAMM module design in its GB300 AI servers, replacing the initial onboard LPDDR5X solution for Grace CPUs. SO-CAMM offers advantages such as easy replacement and low power consumption, and it is expected to become the mainstream memory solution for NVIDIA's AI server CPUs. Module house Kingston, in addition to the three major suppliers, will also join in on the array of provision. The demand for mobile DRAM will grow rapidly with the climbing needs of AI servers, with related demand bits projected to increase by over 400% YoY in 2025.
TrendForce forecasts a 25% YoY growth in DRAM bit output in 2025, with diverging market conditions across different product types and applications. HBM demand remains strong, leading to tight supply; DDR5 and LPDDR5X show a relatively healthy supply-demand balance; while DDR4 and LPDDR4X face oversupply pressure and increased risk of price declines. Chinese suppliers' capacity expansion primarily impacts the domestic market, with limited impact on the global market. DRAM suppliers need to carefully plan capacity and optimize product mix to ensure profitability.
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